The number of mobile users will reach six billion by 2020: Booz & Company
Published: Aug 30, 2010 00:30 Updated: Aug 30, 2010 00:30
MANAMA: By the year 2020, the number of mobile users will reach six billion and the number of people accessing the Internet will reach 4.7 billion, according to a new study by Booz & Company.In its new study titled ‘the Rise of Generation C: Implications for the world of 2020’ it said that in the course of the next 10 years, a new generation—Generation C—will emerge (the C stands for connect, communicate, change).
“Following the lull that took place during the recent worldwide recession, we expect to see some form of economic growth, with globalisation picking up speed again,” said Richard Shediac, the Booz & Company partner leading the firm’s Middle East Public Sector practice. That will reestablish an international environment of global migration of talent and labour as well as capital. With ageing Western populations, new consumer segments will be created, including a relatively wealthy retirement segment and a new young middle class, and the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) will continue to grow rapidly. The pace of innovation will create an ever more digital world, even as wireless devices confirm their emerging role as the dominant tool for trade, entrepreneurship, and Internet access for the masses. Finally, concern for the environment and for energy security will remain at a high level.
“The trends outlined will have a wide range of effects on how people use communications technology, on how they gather and consume information and entertainment, and on how they interact,” said Ramez Shehadi, the Booz & Company partner leading the firm’s Middle East Information Technology practice. The latest consumer behaviour studies confirm that these trends are real, and they are reshaping the mass market.
“The Internet’s power will develop through its online economic might and also offline as a cultural and political influence. At the same time, personal and business activities will mingle seamlessly, as the day fragments into a flexible mix of personal and business activities—work, commuting, shopping, communications, entertainment,” the study added.
“The average person in 2020 will live in a web of 200 to 300 contacts, maintained daily through a variety of channels.
People will dramatically increase their consumption of digital information. The vast pool of available information will allow consumers to pick and choose the information they want and how they want to consume it. “Nonlinear” information consumption will become the norm and the supply of digital information itself will explode,” it said.
“Growing use of social networking increasingly determines consumption patterns. Viral marketing and positive peer reviews become essential to success, which in turn erodes the concept of brand value, traditional marketing, and bricks-and-mortar outlets,” added Shehadi.
The upper limit of the digitally literate grows older, as the 50-plus-age bracket broadly migrates online. At present, 65-year-olds spend just two to three hours online in a typical week, yet the 65-year-olds of 2020 will spend closer to eight hours online weekly. Generation C will distance itself, particularly in the development of its own pervasive culture of communication. That culture has led observers to dub this group “the Silent Generation,” as digital communication channels have replaced the physical interaction so dear to prior generations.
“Skilled and innovative digital entrepreneurs will emerge throughout the developing world in massive numbers. These have the potential to significantly disrupt traditional Western business models and have a highly connected audience that can benefit from their new ideas,” the report added.
“These will have major implications for the telecommunications and technology industries, which must begin now to develop complex webs of interacting technologies and business models,” added Shehadi.
“The trends outlined above will pose real challenges for every player in the global telecom industry over the next decade. We expect there to be real opportunities for growth, especially in specific areas,” said Shehadi.
The advent of Generation C will drive fundamental change in most industries—and create substantial opportunities and threats for all involved. Booz & Company predicts a series of “eras” triggered by the sequential rise of critical new technologies. The year 2020 will be a different world. The general outlines, and a great deal of the particulars, are clear. As such, it is incumbent on the technology and communication industries to prepare to help lead us into this world, and to benefit from the technological, social, and cultural changes that will take place.
“Following the lull that took place during the recent worldwide recession, we expect to see some form of economic growth, with globalisation picking up speed again,” said Richard Shediac, the Booz & Company partner leading the firm’s Middle East Public Sector practice. That will reestablish an international environment of global migration of talent and labour as well as capital. With ageing Western populations, new consumer segments will be created, including a relatively wealthy retirement segment and a new young middle class, and the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) will continue to grow rapidly. The pace of innovation will create an ever more digital world, even as wireless devices confirm their emerging role as the dominant tool for trade, entrepreneurship, and Internet access for the masses. Finally, concern for the environment and for energy security will remain at a high level.
“The trends outlined will have a wide range of effects on how people use communications technology, on how they gather and consume information and entertainment, and on how they interact,” said Ramez Shehadi, the Booz & Company partner leading the firm’s Middle East Information Technology practice. The latest consumer behaviour studies confirm that these trends are real, and they are reshaping the mass market.
“The Internet’s power will develop through its online economic might and also offline as a cultural and political influence. At the same time, personal and business activities will mingle seamlessly, as the day fragments into a flexible mix of personal and business activities—work, commuting, shopping, communications, entertainment,” the study added.
“The average person in 2020 will live in a web of 200 to 300 contacts, maintained daily through a variety of channels.
People will dramatically increase their consumption of digital information. The vast pool of available information will allow consumers to pick and choose the information they want and how they want to consume it. “Nonlinear” information consumption will become the norm and the supply of digital information itself will explode,” it said.
“Growing use of social networking increasingly determines consumption patterns. Viral marketing and positive peer reviews become essential to success, which in turn erodes the concept of brand value, traditional marketing, and bricks-and-mortar outlets,” added Shehadi.
The upper limit of the digitally literate grows older, as the 50-plus-age bracket broadly migrates online. At present, 65-year-olds spend just two to three hours online in a typical week, yet the 65-year-olds of 2020 will spend closer to eight hours online weekly. Generation C will distance itself, particularly in the development of its own pervasive culture of communication. That culture has led observers to dub this group “the Silent Generation,” as digital communication channels have replaced the physical interaction so dear to prior generations.
“Skilled and innovative digital entrepreneurs will emerge throughout the developing world in massive numbers. These have the potential to significantly disrupt traditional Western business models and have a highly connected audience that can benefit from their new ideas,” the report added.
“These will have major implications for the telecommunications and technology industries, which must begin now to develop complex webs of interacting technologies and business models,” added Shehadi.
“The trends outlined above will pose real challenges for every player in the global telecom industry over the next decade. We expect there to be real opportunities for growth, especially in specific areas,” said Shehadi.
The advent of Generation C will drive fundamental change in most industries—and create substantial opportunities and threats for all involved. Booz & Company predicts a series of “eras” triggered by the sequential rise of critical new technologies. The year 2020 will be a different world. The general outlines, and a great deal of the particulars, are clear. As such, it is incumbent on the technology and communication industries to prepare to help lead us into this world, and to benefit from the technological, social, and cultural changes that will take place.
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